Double Trouble?
How Deploying a Double Could Backfire on Putin
Just imagine if three months from now the following news headlines appear over the course of a single day:
“Russian President Putin Killed in Missile Attack during Tour of Munitions Factory”
“Ukrainians Deny Foreknowledge of Putin Visit to Munitions Factory”
“Western Intelligence Sources Claim Putin Death Due to Backfiring Russian Air Defense Missile, not Ukrainian Attack”
“Flash: Russian Presidential Office Announces that Putin Safe; His Body Double Was Killed Instead”
“Russian Prime Minister Announces that Putin Really Was Killed; Fake Putin Arrested”
“Foreign Leaders Uncertain What Is Going on in Russia”
Could this happen? There have been numerous stories over the years that Russian President Vlaidmir Putin has multiple body doubles. A Newsweek article discussed the evidence for this in 2023. Wikipedia noted a claim that there might be six Putin doubles, each specializing in a different task. But, as Wikipedia also noted, there are also those who dismiss reports of Putin having body doubles as false.
I do not know whether Putin employs body doubles. The possibility that he does, though, reminds me of the Dostoevsky novel, The Double, in which someone meets his double, the double takes over his life, and the someone whose life is taken over ends up in an asylum. Could life imitate art, and having a double lead to Putin’s undoing? While it may be a low probability event, the high impact of its occurring makes the question worth considering.
If Putin does employ a double, he obviously does so in order to protect himself. While he may see it as desirable to be seen making public appearances and travelling abroad, a paranoid Putin might see sending doubles on these missions while he stays safe in one of his bunkers as prudent. There is always a risk, though, that one of the fake Putins, with help from others, could try to take his place. Presumably, though, Putin and his guards have anticipated this possibility and taken measures to ensure that it does not arise.
Still, there is always the risk of something taking place that could make having a double render Putin more politically vulnerable than he would otherwise be. If Putin has doubles, there need to be at least a few others who know about this in order to deploy them. But it could only be a very few since the more who know for sure, the more likely that knowledge or even suspicion that a double is representing Putin will become widespread and undermine whatever benefit arises from deploying them.
This also gives the small number of people who know for sure if Putin sends out doubles the power, if they choose to exercise it, to declare who is the real Putin and who is not. And if, as the above future headlines suggest, something tragic befalls the fake Putin, the security forces in the know may may have the possibility of exploiting the occasion to declare that the real Putin is no longer with us and the one claiming to be him is a fraud. Indeed, perhaps they could even arrange for just such a scenario.
Why might those close to Putin do this? One possibility is that if the people around him recognize that the war against Ukraine needs to be halted before Russia is further weakened but know that Putin will never agree to this, replacing him with a double would be one way to solve this problem. Presumably, the double would not have the same stake that Putin does in continuing the war and would have every incentive to do and say whatever it takes to stay in the good graces of his minders. And if a double is killed while playing the part of Putin, this could give the minders the opportunity to replace the real one. Even if it was generally suspected that this was what they were doing, those within the power elite recognizing that Russia is better off without Putin would have an incentive to play along.
Many of those reading this may, I quite understand, dismiss the possibility of Putin’s downfall resulting from a situation arising from his deployment of a double. Maybe there are no Putin doubles. Even if there are, maybe Putin has complete control over them and their minders. And maybe they can continue to prevent (if that is what they have been doing) anything untoward from happening when a double is playing the part of Putin that would result in the real Putin having to assert himself by admitting that he had deployed a double.
If Putin leaves office involuntarily, though, it is probably not going to occur through either a democratic revolution (something Putin knows how to suppress) or military rebellion (which may be too difficult to plan and execute without being betrayed by one of the many needed to make it work). If Putin does leave office involuntarily, then, it is more likely to occur as a result of a bizarre set of circumstances unexpectedly arising and someone exploiting—like something in a Dostoevsky novel.
I enjoyed your article.
I read some time ago, that Putin was asked about this and denied using a body double.
I've seen and examined a number of photos online right back to when he was young to present day.
I only came across two photos that looked like he may have a double.
I understand why he would keep that to himself.
Others have used AI to uncover whether he has doubles, but I read that AI can let you down too, especially if you believe in it completely, it still makes mistakes.
Though the doubles plot is in several movies, I think a Putin Double would still make for a great movie—so long as the director follows your well-informed script to ensure realism. And if there is a movie, I suggest your next work should be “A Practical Guide to Identifying Vladimir Putin.”